Christian Lysek: NFL Combine Preview and Rankings

Written by Christian Lysek

LSU CB Donte Jackson (Crystal LoGiudice, USA Today Sports)

The combine is here! After months of guessing about how fast and explosive players are off of tape, we will finally get their athletic numbers and begin to separate these prospects. There is a lot to dissect in this years combine, so let's jump right in and breakdown every position in Indianapolis.

Note: I stole the predictions format from the Locked on NFL Draft podcast with Trevor Sikkema and John Ledyard, so shoutout to those guys for making a fun and easy prediction formant.

Quarterbacks

Who Needs to Impress:

Baker Mayfield, Interviews: Mayfield is a great leader, but he is going to have to prove he is mature enough from the NFL. He needs to impress evaluators when they ask him questions about his arrest and controversies at Oklahoma.
Josh Rosen, Interviews: Rosen gets slandered all the time for being uncoachable and selfish, so teams are going to have to determine for themselves whether or not there is any truth to those notions
Lamar Jackson, Field Drills: I am a big Lamar Jackson fan, but if it's one area he needs to improve upon, it's his deep ball accuracy. If Jackson can hit deep passes outside of the numbers during the field drills, it will leave a big impression on scouts and GMs.
Marshall QB Chase Litton, Interviews: Chase Litton has intriguing size and tools, but his off-field history is sketchy. He has been arrested for burglary, and the pieces I read about his past paint him as an arrogant guy. Whether or not those notions are true is what evaluators are going to find out.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Lamar Jackson

Best Vertical Jump: Lamar Jackson

Best Broad Jump: Lamar Jackson

Best Short Shuttle: Quinton Flowers, USF

Du-wait! Yes, Lamar Jackson is a freak, but don't sleep on Quinton Flowers when it comes to the agility drills. His low center of gravity and quickness will serve him well here, and he could steal the win from Jackson.

Best 3-Cone: Quinton Flowers

See above

Best Bench Press: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

Mayfield has short arms, a thick frame, and a cocky demeanor, all signs of a standout bencher.

Worst 40-yard dash: Chase Litton

I almost went with Texas Tech's Nic Shimonek here, but Litton runs like his 6'6'' frame is made of concrete.

Worst Bench Press: Riley Ferguson, Memphis

Ferguson is 6'4'' and 196 pounds with long arms. The string bean build will do him no favors while pumping the iron.

Overall Winner: Lamar Jackson

He is going to post some alien-esq numbers for a quarterback and I think will look good throwing with no pressure.

Overall Loser: None

Running Backs:

Who Needs to Impress:

Mark Walton, Medicals: Walton is a great talent in this draft class, but he will have to prove he is recovered from the fractured ankle that ended his 2017 season.
Georgia RB Nick Chubb, Medicals: Nick Chubb has recovered quite nicely from his devastating knee injury in 2015, but teams are going to determine whether or not the injury brings any long-term consequences.
Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway, Interview: Pettway was booted from Auburn football late in the 2017 season for undisclosed reasons. He will have to answer questions as to why he was kicked out and how he has changed since.
Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson, 40 yard dash: Kerryon Johnson is quick and elusive for a big back, but he looks sluggish on tape. He dealt with some nagging injuries in 2017, so maybe a healthy Kerryon is much faster. Either way, his 40 time will be revealing.
Tennessee RB John Kelly, 40 yard dash: Kelly is a bruising back but his long speed on tape is unimpressive. His 40 time will directly impact where he will be drafted.
Ronald Jones, Weigh-In: It won't impact may grade that much, but I would much prefer if Jones came in at least 200 lbs instead of 190.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Nyheim Hynes, NC State

Saquon Barkley seems like the obvious choice here, by Nyheim Hynes is a burner. He ran a 4.34 in high school, and that time usually improves as players build muscle. He is going to destroy many of these combine events.

Best Vertical Jump: Saquon Barkley

The man power cleans over 400 pounds and can squat 500 pounds 7 times. That is the definition of lower body explosiveness. He is going to jump out of the gym.

Best Broad Jump: Saquon Barkley

See Above

Best Short Shuttle: Ronald Jones II

RoJo will probably finish in the top-5 in most of these events, but I think his quickness and burst in going to help him win the top spot in the short shuttle.

Best 3-Cone: Akrum Wadley, Iowa

I'm not a big Akrum Wadley fan, but he is short and extremely agile, so he should take the 3-cone crown.

Best Bench Press: Saquon Barkley

He threw up 225 pounds 30 times at a Penn State charity event. He should win this easy.

Worst 40-yard dash: Kamryn Pettway

When you are 235 pounds and wear a cowboy collar, speed is not your game.

Worst Bench Press: Akrum Wadley

Wadley is tiny at a mere 181 pounds, so don't expect him to be throwing up much weight at the combine.

Overall Winners: Saquon Barkley, Nyheim Hynes, Arizona State RB Kalen Ballage

We already talked about Barkley and Hynes, but Ballage is a freak too. At 6'2'' and 230 pounds, he probably isn't going to take 1st place in anything, but he is going to finish top five in almost every drill.

Overall Losers: Darrell Williams, Josh Adams

The combine is not made for these dude, as both are big bruisers who look unathletic on tape.

Wide Receivers:

Who Needs to Impress:

Every Receiver 6'3'' and taller, 40 yard dash: There is a glut of tall receivers (Courtland Sutton, Auden Tate, EQ St. Brown, Allen Lazard, Simmie Cobbs, to name a few) in this draft and not much is separating them right now. A good 40 yard dash could mean the difference between a day two selection and going undrafted.
James Washington, 40 yard dash: James Washington has been the nations best deep threat for the past three seasons, but evaluators still are not convinced he can run fast enough to separate in the NFL. Anything under a 4.5 is a win for him.
Deontay Burnett, Weigh in: Deontay Burnett weighs a mere 176 lbs, which very light for a guy who's game revolves around going over the middle of the field and catching passes. Adding a few pounds would ease some teams concerns about his durability.
Florida WR Antonio Callaway, Interviews: Callaway is an undeniable talent on the field, but teams are going to pelt him with questions about his criminal past, which involves marijuana, sexual abuse, and credit card fraud.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Trey Quinn, SMU

White boy for the win! Quinn ran a 4.38 40 yard dash in high school, so this isn't as much of a stretch as one might imagine. This will be a close race, however, as players like Keke Coutee, D.J. Moore, and Byron Pringle all have legit shots at being the fastest WR.

Best Vertical Jump: Dante Pettis, Washington

Dante Pettis is an explosive wide receiver who has several outstanding jump ball catches on film. He should be in the high-30s with his jump.

Best Broad Jump: Dante Pettis

I think Pettis will take this event too, as his explosion is pretty dang good.

Best Short Shuttle: D.J. Moore, Maryland

D.J. Moore's game revolves around his ability to gain YAC, and part of his move set is his elite agility and burst. That should translate to a good shuttle time.

Best 3-Cone: Calvin Ridley

Good route runners tend to excel in the 3-cone, and Ridley is probably the best in this class.

Best Bench Press: James Washington, Oklahoma State

James Washington's running back like build (short, muscled out, short arms) should translate to throwing up plenty of bench press reps.

Worst 40-yard dash: Simmie Cobbs Jr., Indiana

I'm not sure how likely this is, but having already done the film work on Cobbs, I can confirm he is S-L-O-W. He constantly gets pushed out of bounds because he has no speed to create separation.

Worst Bench Press: Deontay Burnett

Burnett weighs less than 180 pounds and looks like a high school sophomore, he should be the worst by a country mile.

Overall Winners: Equinameous St. Brown (Notre Dame), Dante Pettis, Deon Cain (Clemson)

Equinameous St. Brown is going to stand out amongst the other big receivers because he is by far the smoothest mover and probably the best athlete. Dante Pettis is going to crush the jumping drills, and he is likely to run a sub 4.5 40 yard dash as well. Deon Cain might not win any event, but a well-rounded combine could generate some buzz around his name, which he could use at thise point.

Overall Losers: Deontay Burnett, Allen Lazard, Braxton Berrios

Deontay Burnett is too small and not good enough of an athlete to really impress. Allen Lazard might be the biggest wide receiver here, so he is going to stand out as a slow mover against his smaller competition. Braxton berrios will do good in the agility drills, but I'm preparing to be underwhelmed in the other ones.

Tight Ends:

Who Needs to Impress:

Chris Herndon, Miami, Medicals: I'm not sure if Herndon will participate in any combine events due to a season ending MCL surgery, but he needs to prove he is on track health wise.
Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State, 40 yard dash: Goedert has a chance to be the first tight end drafted, but in order to do so he is going to have to prove his athletic potential with a good 40 time.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Jaylen Samuels, NC State

For whatever reason, the combine has Jaylen Samuels working out at tight end, even though he is more physically comparable to some of the other positions he played (WR, RB, FB). Samuels is going to crush the tight end group because of his smaller, faster build.

Best Vertical Jump: Mike Gesicki, Penn State

Gesicki is a goofy looking sprinter and cannot block, but he can jump out of the gym. He should jump just under 40".

Best Broad Jump: Mike Gesicki

All you need to know is that Gesicki beat Saquon Barkley in the broad jump at Penn State.

Best Short Shuttle: Jaylen Samuels

See 40 time

Best 3-Cone: Jaylen Samuels

See above

Best Bench Press: Durham Smyth, Notre Dame

Smyth is a big, strong blocking tight end, the perfect bench press champion.

Worst 40-yard dash: Tony Fumagalli, Wisconsin

Fumagalli is a really good blocker, but you can tell on tape he isn't athletic at all.

Worst Bench Press: Mike Gesicki

If blocking is an indicator of bench press success, Gesicki might not be able to unrack the weight.

Overall Winners: Jaylen Samuels, Mike Gesicki

Jaylen Samuels is going to wow everyone because he will post running back numbers amongst guys who are 6'5'' and 260 pounds. Gesicki is going to blow away the lower body explosion tests.

Overall Losers: Troy Fumagalli

Fumagalli's lack of athleticism is going to be exposed here.

Offensive Line:

Who Needs to Impress:

Orlando Brown, Oklahoma, Position Drills: Orlando Brown is enormous at 6'8'' and 340 pounds, but he is going to have to impress scouts with his movements skills on the field in order to maintain first round consideration.
Mason Cole, Michigan, Position Drills: Mason Cole is transitioning back to center after a season of playing left tackle, and he needs to show the same great technique and movement skills that made me such a big fan of his after his junior year.
Desmond Harrison, West Georgia, Weigh-Ins: Harrison weighed a mere 275 pounds at the Senior Bowl, so weighing in heavier will be critical for his draft stock.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Brian O'Neill, Pitt

Brian O'Neill is a former tight end who's athleticism pops on tape. He is going to destroy most of these events just because he isn't a big, lumbering guy.

Best Vertical Jump: Connor Williams, Texas

Connor Williams posted a video on twitter of himself dunking a few weeks ago, which leads me to believe he has good enough lower body explosion to be at least towards the top of the jumping events

Best Broad Jump: Connor Williams, Texas

See Above

Best Short Shuttle: Brian O'Neill, Pitt

See Above

Best 3-Cone: Brian O'Neill, Pitt

See Above

Best Bench Press: Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame

Quenton Nelson benched 225 pounds 26 times IN HIGH SCHOOL!!! Lord knows what he can bench now, but he should crush this event.

Worst 40-yard dash: Orlando Brown, Oklahoma

Orlando Brown is just too big to have a very good time in this event.

Worst Bench Press: Desmond Harrison

When you are 25 pounds lighter than almost everyone else, I picking you last for the bench press.

Overall Winners: Connor Williams, Brian O'Neill

Connor Williams and Brian O'Neill are very good athletes who are going to shine against an offensive line group that, while good, isn't the most athletic from top to bottom.

Overall Losers: Orlando Brown

At 6'8'' and 340 pounds, i just cannot envision him finding much success in any of these drills.

Defensive Line:

Who Needs to Impress:

Maurice Hurst, Michigan, Weigh In: Maurice Hurst weighed under 280 pounds at one point, which is way to light for a 3-technique defensive lineman. He needs to come in at least 285 to ease my concerns.
Lowell Lotulelei, Utah, Interviews: According to a scout's quote from a tweet by Jesse Fritsch, Lotulelei has work ethic concerns. Teams are going to pester him about his habits in college and whether he is willing to work hard enough in the NFL.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Taven Bryan, Florida

Taven Bryan is in another athletic dimension compared to some of these dudes. He is going to blow the doors off of the combine.

Best Vertical Jump: Maurice Hurst, Michigan

I like Hurst's lower body explosion off of the snap, and that might translate to a good vertical jump.

Best Broad Jump: Taven Bryan

See Above.

Best Short Shuttle: Taven Bryan

See Above.

Best 3-Cone: Maurice Hurst

Hurst is a shorter, lighter prospect and he looks quick on film, so I'm picking him to win the 3-cone.

Best Bench Press: Derrick Nnadi, Florida State

Derrick Nnadi has short arms and is strong as an ox on film. He should betowards the top in term sof bench press performance.

Worst 40-yard dash: Lowell Lotulelei

Lotulelei is a run stuffing nose tackle with work ethic concerns, making him a strong candidate for worst 40.

Worst Bench Press: Bilal Nichols, Delaware

To be honest, I'm throwing a dart at the board with this one.

Overall Winners: Taven Bryan, Maurice Hurst

Bryan and Hurst were standout athletes in college, and that should translate against this defensive line class filled with big run stuffers.

Overall Losers: Lowell Lotulelei

if the work ethic concerns are legit, there is no reason for me to believe he will have a good combine performance.

EDGE:

Who Needs to Impress:

Josh Sweat, Florida State, Medicals: Josh Sweat has torn his knees up several times, so his medicals will be crucial when determining what round he is worth selecting in.
Arden Key, LSU, Everything: No player has more riding on the combine than Key. From weigh in to interviews to testing, Key needs a great few days to be considered a high draft pick.
Tyquan Lewis, Ohio State, 3-Cone: I like Tyquan Lewis, but i do admit he looks stiff as an athlete. His three cone will determine a lot about his pass rushing upside.
Hercules Mata'afa, Washington State, Athletic testing: Mata'afa is preparing to make the change from interior defensive line to the edge, so testing like a defensive end is going to be critical for the former Cougar.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Josh Sweat

Josh Sweat ran a 4.46 in high school. if he runs anywhere near that, evaluators are going to crap themselves.

Best Vertical Jump: Kentavious Street, NC State

Kentavious Street can squat a whopping 700 pounds, which should easily translate to a high vertical jump.

Best Broad Jump: Marquis Haynes, Ole Miss

Haynes is undersized for an EDGE rusher, but his athleticism stands out on tape. I have a feeling he could steal this event from Street.

Best Short Shuttle: Kemoko Turay, Rutgers

Kemoko Turay was very impressive at the Senior Bowl, displaying great burst and quickness. He should excel at both this and the 3-cone.

Best 3-Cone: Harold Landry, Boston College

Harold Landry is better than everybody else in this class at bending the edge, so I'm picking him to win the 3-cone.

Best Bench Press: Kentavious Street

I'm guessing the guy with a 700 pound squat also has a good bench press workout.

Worst 40-yard dash: Andrew Brown, VUA

Andrew Brown is a three technique playing with a bunch of defensive ends, so he is an easy choice.

Worst Bench Press: Uchenna Nwosu, USC

Nwosu is very undersized for the position and will probably be moved off the ball in the pros. I doubt he will throw up many bench press reps.

Overall Winners: Kentavius Street, Leon Jacobs (Wisconsin), Josh Sweat

Kentavius Street and Josh Sweat should be in the top five for almost every event, but don't sleep on Leon Jacobs. He looks like a greek god and should standout in any event that has to do with strength.

Overall Losers: Andrew Brown, Duke Ejiofor

Andrew brown is a defensive tackle, so he is going to stick out like a sore thumb. I like Ejiofor as a run-stuffer, but i don't think he has the explosiveness or bend to test very well.

Linebackers:

Who Needs to Impress:

Josey Jewell, Iowa, 40 yard dash: Josey Jewell has great football instincts, but his sideline to sideline speed is questionable. A good 40 time could see him go in the second round, however.
Jack Cichy, Wisconsin, Medicals: Jack Cichy had an injury plagued career at Wisconsin, so teams will have to determine whether his long term outlook is worth a gamble in the draft.
Micah Kiser, UVA, 40 yard dash: Micah Kiser racked up a huge amount of tackles at UVA, but he is obviously not very athletic on tape. Kiser needs to blow away our expectations with a good run.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Dorian O'Daniel, Clemson

Dorian O'Daniel is a linebacker safety hybrid whose speed stood out in person when I watched Clemson play Virginia Tech. He is a dark horse to win the 40.

Best Vertical Jump: Malik Jefferson, Texas

It is no secret Jefferson is a freak athlete, so expect him to win at least one event.

Best Broad Jump: Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech

Edmunds is a freak athlete who should test very well in all of these drills, especially the jumps, thanks to his explosiveness.

Best Short Shuttle: Roquan Smith, Georgia

Roquan Smith is the most agile linebacker in this class, so expect good drill times from the Bulldog.

Best 3-Cone: Roquon Smith

See Above

Best Bench Press: Rashaan Evans, Alabama

Evans just straight up laid dudes out several times a season at Alabama. I believe that will translate to an excellent bench press performance.

Worst 40-yard dash: Micah Kiser, Virginia

I don't think Kiser will be able to run a good time. He looks far too stiff and slow on tape.

Worst Bench Press: Jerome Baker, Ohio State

Jerome Baker avoids offensive lineman like the plague on film because he knows he is going to get bullied. Add that to a long, lean frame, and Baker should be the worst bencher.

Overall Winners: Malik Jefferson, Tremaine Edmunds, Keishawn Bierria

Jefferson and Edmunds are shoe ins for this award, but forgotten man Keishawn Bierria is the one to watch. He is undersized, but much like Roquan Smith, he makes up for it which speed, athleticism, and tenacity. Expect his name to start buzzing once testing begins.

Overall Losers: Micah Kizer

See above

Cornerbacks:

Who Needs to Impress:

Holton Hill, Texas, Drug Test: Holton Hill was booted from Texas due to marijuana, so showing up clean to the combine will be vital to his draft stock.
Josh Jackson, Iowa, 40 yard dash:Jackson is a prototype corner at 6'1'', almost 200 pounds, and long arms. He is going to have to run fast, however, to get top-15 consideration.
Tarvarus McFadden, Florida State, Athletic Testing: McFadden went from top-10 pick to forgotten prospect in 6 months. He needs to give evaluators a reason to remember him and draft him high.
Mike Hughes, UCF, Interviews: Hughes was kicked off of North Carolina's football team before heading to Central Florida, so teams are going to pelt him with questions about his dismissal and character.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Donte Jackson, LSU

Donte Jackson ran track at LSU, posting a 10.22 100 meter dash during a 2017 met, which is blazing fast. he is the favorite to win it all.

Best Vertical Jump: Josh Jackson

Look at this interception and tell my why Jackson will struggle at all in the jumps? he should win these.

Best Broad Jump: Josh Jackson

See above.

Best Short Shuttle: Jaire Alexander, Louisville

Jaire Alexander has great quickness and body control, so i'm picking him for the agility drills.

Best 3-Cone: Jaire Alexander

See above.

Best Bench Press: Carlton Davis, Auburn

Carlton Davis is as scrappy as it gets for a corner, and his pure, raw strength should give him a victory in the bench press.

Worst 40-yard dash: Jordan Thomas, Oklahoma

I'm not a Jordan Thomas fan at all, and he is one of the few corners that stood out to me as slow, making him an easy choice.

Worst Bench Press: Levi Wallace, Alabama

Levi Wallace is under 180 pounds and has long, gangly arms. He will be at the bottom in terms of bench-press performance.

Overall Winners: Josh Jackson, Donte Jackson, Denzel Ward, Jaire Alexander

All four of these guys were in consideration for the top spot in almost every event, so look for them to be the standout guys in Indy.

Overall Losers: Jordan Thomas

Jordan Thomas looks like a limited athlete and he has off the field issues. Thomas is a recipe for disaster at the combine.

Safeties:

Who Needs to Impress:

DeShon Elliot, Texas, 40-yard dash: Detractors of DeShon Elliot often mention concerns about his speed, so Elliot running a good 40 time is crucial to his draft stock.
Quin Blanding, UVA, 40-yard dash: Quin Blanding is a box safety who appears to be limited in coverage due to his lack of game speed. A good 40 time, however, could cause GMs to overlook the field and see his athletic upside.

Predictions:

Best 40 yard dash: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama

This is going to be the Minak-Derwin show, with Derwin taking all of the strength and explosion events and Minkah claiming the speed ones. Don't over think this, these guys are aliens.

Best Vertical Jump: Derwin James, Florida State

See Above

Best Broad Jump: Derwin James, Florida State

See Above

Best Short Shuttle: Minkah Fitzpatrick

See Above

Best 3-Cone: Minkah Fitzpatrick

See Above

Best Bench Press: Derwin James

See Above

Worst 40-yard dash: Quin Blanding, UVA

See Above

Worst Bench Press: Van Smith, Clemson

Van Smith is only 5'11'' and 185 according to Clemson's website, so I'm not expecting many bench press reps from Smith.

Overall Winners: DeShon Elliot, Jordan Whitehead (Pitt)

Derwin and Minkah are already at the top, so lets focus on two other safeties in Elliot and Whitehead. I think Elliot will run a fast 40 and ease concerns about his speed, while Whitehead with use his athleticism to post good number s across the board.

Overall Losers: Quin Blanding, Marcus Allen (Penn State)

These guys are run stuffing box safeties who be exposed in speed events and field drills.

Follow 4 Down Scouting on twitter @4DownScouting

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

NFL Combine Preview and Rankings

No comments:

Post a Comment