If you have been following the draft up to this point, you probably have found out that this is a very weak quarterback class. None of the prospects are close to the talent level that the two recent draft classes have produced at the quarterback position (Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, to name a few). For some, Patrick Mahomes is the one who can seize the top quarterback position and be a stud for some team due to his physical attributes. For me, Patrick Mahomes is the biggest boom-or-bust prospects in recent memory, even bigger than Robert Nkemdiche. Here's why:
Measurables:6'3''
230 lbs
Year:
Junior
2016 stat line:
5052 passing yards, 65.7% completion percentage, 41 TDs, 10 INT, 27 sacks, 285 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs
Pros: Pat Mahomes certainly looks the part. His height, bulk, and arm size are pro-typical and are a good template to work with. Mahomes can heave the ball quite far downfield and throws with a great velocity. He throws a little bit like an unrefined Phillip Rivers, as he releases the ball from the side rather than over his shoulder. It seems to work for him. Mahomes typically has several "wow" plays a game, where he fits a ball into a space that does not seem big enough for a football. He has enough accuracy flashes to warrant scouts getting excited. The best throws Mahomes makes are plays where he moves his legs or pump fakes to draw the defenders eyes and then rifles a pass to a receiver behind them. Mahomes ability to make these throws allowed Texas Tech receivers to YAC their way to big gains and touchdowns because the defenders were caught off guard. He also is a very good dual threat. He can extend plays and is good at picking up yards rushing.
Cons: For every spectacular throw Mahomes makes, he seems to make an atrocious one. His tape is littered with head-scratching throws that lead to picks or deflections. While Mahomes is very accurate when he is feeling it, his accuracy is terrible when he isn't. if he is missing a throw, it usually is an uncatchable ball as opposed to a more challenging catch. Part of this is due to his footwork. Some high school recruits have been taught better footwork than Mahomes, so an NFL team will need to start from scratch in that department. Mahomes just tends to forget his fundamentals in general. He chucks the ball across his body a disturbingly frequent amount of times and gets panicked when defenders get into the pocket, leading to the 27 sacks. He will just hold on the ball too much and either force a pass or take a sack. On top of all of this, the Texas Tech offense has never produced a quarterback that has had any sustained success in the NFL.
Pro Comparison: Colin Kaepernick
Colin Kaepernick is a great physical talent who could never quite grasp an NFL offense. While he was an effective quarterback in a dumbed down system, he has not been able to make a good transition to a full-time NFL offense. Mahomes will face a similar challenge, it is just a matter of whether he can make the necessary adjustments that Kaepernick could not.
3 teams that fit him: The Chargers, Steelers, and Saints (and the Giants) all have aging quarterbacks that will need replacements soon, so letting Mahomes sit behind some of the best quarterbacks in league history and learning from them and the coaching staff could help Mahomes reach his sky-high potential.
Conclusion: Patrick Mahomes is a physical talent that needs years of coaching to become acclimated to the NFL. He fits best with a team looking for a long-term replacement with a high ceiling for their aging star quarterback. He will probably be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round.
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