Going into the 2016 college football season, Mitch Trubisky was a name well off the radar of the media. He was a heralded prospect coming out of high school, but the attention just was not on the Tar Heels QB. Now, it is. Trubisky has torn through college defenses in his first year as a starter and has built up enough hype to get into the first-round conversation for the upcoming NFL draft. Is the young quarterback worth the pick, though? Here is my evaluation of the young Tar Heel:Measurables:
Height- 6'3''
Weight- 220 lbs
Year:
Junior (22 years old)
2016 Stat line:
3,468 yards passing, 28 TDs, 4 picks
Pros: Trubisky has pro size and an arm to match. He puts zip on line-drive throws normal quarterbacks could only dream of doing. His motion is tight and his release is quick, which leads to extreme accuracy on his throws, especially when he has time in the pocket. Just give this man time and he will fit the football into a shoe box. He rarely overthrows, a testament to his sound mechanics and calm demeanor in high-pressure situations. He also protects the ball well, as his mere four interceptions would indicate. While he is not a duel-threat quarterback, he is an adequate runner good at finding the first down, and if pressure is around him, he finds his way forward towards the line of scrimmage to minimize the loss of yards.
Cons: UNC does not run a pro offense. The quarterback does not have to audible or take snaps under center, and many of their plays are option plays. It will take him time to learn an NFL playbook and an audible system. While Trubisky is good at eluding pass rushers in the pocket, his worst throws are those that must travel at least 5-10 yards while pressure is around him. These throws are the ones that are inaccurate and get intercepted. He can improvise when the pocket collapses, but he is not elite at it like say, Russel Wilson was in his college days. The other big concern is his limited number of starts. He did not start a game until this season, and quarterback prospects who tend to perform the best in the NFL have more game experience than one starting season in college.
Pro Comparison: Peak level Kirk Cousins
I'm talking about the Kirk Cousins we saw tear up the NFL in the second half of the season last year. That version of Kirk Cousins shows extreme accuracy on throws at all three distance levels, just like Trubisky. Trubisky is more mobile, but Cousins does have some running ability. While it took Cousins awhile to adjust to the pro game, he is one of the 10-15 best quarterbacks in the league right now at his peak. Trubisky has the potential to play at that high of a level all throughout his NFL career.
3 Teams that fit him: Arizona is a team that might think long and hard about Trubisky. Carson Palmer is not getting younger and seems to have regressed, but he can still be a veteran leader and effective placeholder until Trubisky is ready to play. Chicago stands out as another team that could use Trubisky, as they have enough total talent to warrant spending a pick on a QB (unlike the 49ers and Browns). They can also use Matt Barkley to play decent football and give Trubisky all of the time he needs to adjust. The final team I selected is Jacksonville. A new coaching change (which at this point almost seems imminent) may compel this team to ditch Blake Bortles and draft a quarterback with superior accuracy. They also have the talent on defense and other positions to warrant spending a top pick on a quarterback if they give up on Bortles.
Conclusion: Trubisky has all of the potential in the world to be a great NFL quarterback, but he does need time to develop and learn the playbook. Fortunately for QB needy teams, his accuracy is pinpoint and mechanics are solid, so while he will be a project, the skills are there now for him to succeed. He is at this point an early-round lock and possibly the first overall pick.
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