Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Christian McCaffrey Scouting report: The Man who Broke Barry Sander's Record

Written by Christian Lysek

Christian McCaffrey should have won the Heisman during the 2015-16 season. How one could break an all-purpose yardage record that stood for 37 years and was set by Barry freaking Sanders and not win is beyond me. This is just my opinion of course, but it was almost everyone's opinion that McCaffrey entered this season as a Heisman contender. Unfortunately, poor offensive line play and injuries held him down for much of the season. Towards the end of the year, though, McCaffery got healthy and tore up the PAC-12, looking like his old self. I was so excited to see him in a bowl game, but then he announced his plans to skip the game. As a fan, it made me sad, but let's face it, nobody wants to be Jaylon Smith or Marshon Lattimore or any other unfortunate player who stayed in college football just a little too long. McCaffrey made a smart move because he has nothing left to prove.

Measurables: 
Height- 6'
Weight- 200 lbs
Year:
Junior (20 years old)
2016 stat line:
253 carries, 1603 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs, 37 receptions, 310 yards, 3 TDs

Pros: Christian McCaffrey is a human highlight reel. He has a rare combination of quickness, vision, and patience that allows him to see things before they even happen (see: that juke against Kansas State, I am pretty sure McCaffrey did not even see him with his eyes). He has a knack for making people miss tackles, and his strong frame makes him tough to bring down. McCaffrey is also an impeccable receiver able to run routes and screens better than almost every prospect in the draft.

Con: Before I touch on an actual con, let me say this: McCaffrey's size is not an issue. Whenever someone says he will have to be a slot receiver because he is a "mere" 200 pounds, it boils my blood. Weight becomes an issue if a player is under 190 pounds like Donnel Pumphrey, not when one is 200 pounds and has experience at the goal line (keep in mind that Dalvin Cook was the same size as McCaffrey last year, added on weight, and looked much slower for the first few games). Thankfully that is off of my chest and I can move on to the real con of McCaffrey: blocking. He is ok at it, but not as good as Fournette or Cook. That can be coached, though, and on my scale of important skills of a running back, blocking ranks lower than receiving and other skills.

Pro Comparison: Brian Westbrook
Brian Westbrook entered the NFL with a prolific track record as a runner, receiver, and returner. Andy Reid liked what he saw in the small running back (5'10" 203 lbs) and it paid off. Westbrook's breakaway speed, vision, agility, and versatility led him to have a splendid 9-year career with the Eagles. McCaffrey shows the same quickness and vision as the All-Pro, and he might be a better athlete, giving him a higher ceiling in the pros.

3 Teams that fit him: Speaking of the Philadelphia Eagles, they could use a weapon like McCaffrey. Ryan Matthews is inconsistent and injury prone, Darren Sproles is getting old, and the other running backs are good but not elite talents. McCaffrey could take pressure off of Carson Wentz with his running and give him a reliable receiving option out of the backfield. The Green Bay Packers could also use McCaffrey, as it appears time to move on from Eddie Lacy and the Packers could use a good run game to balance their offense. The other team that may consider McCaffrey is the Denver Broncos. Their running game has been inconsistent since the CJ Anderson era began due to his injuries and tendency to disappear during big games. They did give him an extension, but I cannot believe he is the answer at the position for the Broncos.

Conclusion:  Christian McCaffrey is a true three-down back in the NFL because of his phenomenal running and receiving. His blocking needs work, but that should not prevent a team from picking him in the bottom half of the first round.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Donnel Pumphrey Scouting Report: Will One of the Best College Runners make it in the Pros?

Written by Christian Lysek

Yesterday, Donnel Pumphrey ran for 115 yards, rushing passed Ron Dayne on the career FBS rushing list fo the all time record. There is no question Pumphrey is one of the best college football players of all time, but his future in the NFL is up in the air. Some scouts think he will be a receiver, while others think he is too talented to keep off the field. I stand somewhere in the middle because while his talent is unquestionable, he size will make him one of the toughest backs to evaluate.

Measurables: 
Height- 5'9"
Weight- 180 lbs
Year:
Senior (22 years old)
2016 Stat Line:
349 attempts, 2133 rushing yards, 17 rushing TDs, 27 receptions, 231 recieving yards

Pros: The name Donnel Pumphrey has to be a synonym for lightning. Pumphrey has wheels and giving him any space is a death sentence for a defense. He is simply too deadly in open space with his quick acceleration and shifty hips for defensive backs to tackle. Pumphrey is good at finding that space too, as he possesses good vision and extremely quick feet. Those feet allow him to quickly change direction and deceive defenders. Do not be fooled by his size either: Pumphrey does not shy away from contact, can break arm tackles, and almost always falls forward. During his time at San Diego, Pumphrey also showcased his great hands and route running, which will be a huge boost to his draft stock.

Cons: Pumphrey's size screams red flag for scouts. While he has never missed a game in his four-year career, the NFL is a different game. While many linebackers in college football are 230 pounds or less, players like Luke Keuchly, Navarro Bowman, and Derrick Johnson are about 240 pounds. That is a 60-pound difference between them and Pumphrey. While he made end up be fine taking hits from the big boys, teams will shake at the potential of seeing a player they used a draft pick on be snapped in half by a linebacker. His size also limits his blocking ability and short-yardage production, which will keep him off the field in the pros.

Pro Comparison: Danny Woodhead
Hey, it's that guy Jeff Fisher forgot is now a Charger, not a Patriot! Before a season-ending knee injury, Woodhead was on his was to another great season as a scatback. While he is quite small at 5'8'' and 200 pounds (and those 200 pounds look rounded up), he uses his 4.3 speed and quick feet to make plays in space both as a runner and receiver. He is a top-5 scatback in the NFL, and Donnel Pumphrey has the potential to be just as good or even better than the veteran runner.

Three Teams that fit Pumphrey: The Bears and 49ers should take a long look at Donnel Pumphrey for the same reason: their star running backs cannot catch. Carlos Hyde and Jordan Howard are talented runners, but both are more power backs and can only catch easy screens. Inserting a lightning player like Pumphrey to complement their thunder would allow the team's offenses to be more creative and multidimensional with their running backs. The other team that could invest in Pumphrey is the Vikings. Adrian Peterson is a capable receiving back, but his size limits his quickness with running routes. Pumphrey has no such problem, and with the Vikings desperately needed a good backup running back behind Peterson and a good receiver to complement Stefon Diggs, Pumphrey has the ability to knock out two birds with one stone.

Conclusion: Donnel Pumphrey will go down in history as one of the best college running backs of all time, but his size will limit his NFL potential. That is not to say he will fail, though, as his electric speed and receiving prowess will allure some team in the late rounds to pull the trigger and coach him to be one of the NFL's best scatbacks. My current prediction is that he will go in the 5th round, but a good combine could bump him to the 4th.



                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Monday, December 12, 2016

Mitch Trubisky Scouting Report: A look at football's hottest prospect

Written by Christian Lysek


Going into the 2016 college football season, Mitch Trubisky was a name well off the radar of the media. He was a heralded prospect coming out of high school, but the attention just was not on the Tar Heels QB. Now, it is. Trubisky has torn through college defenses in his first year as a starter and has built up enough hype to get into the first-round conversation for the upcoming NFL draft. Is the young quarterback worth the pick, though? Here is my evaluation of the young Tar Heel:

Measurables: 
Height- 6'3''
Weight- 220 lbs
Year: 
Junior (22 years old)
2016 Stat line:
3,468 yards passing, 28 TDs, 4 picks

Pros: Trubisky has pro size and an arm to match. He puts zip on line-drive throws normal quarterbacks could only dream of doing. His motion is tight and his release is quick, which leads to extreme accuracy on his throws, especially when he has time in the pocket. Just give this man time and he will fit the football into a shoe box. He rarely overthrows, a testament to his sound mechanics and calm demeanor in high-pressure situations. He also protects the ball well, as his mere four interceptions would indicate. While he is not a duel-threat quarterback, he is an adequate runner good at finding the first down, and if pressure is around him, he finds his way forward towards the line of scrimmage to minimize the loss of yards.

Cons: UNC does not run a pro offense. The quarterback does not have to audible or take snaps under center, and many of their plays are option plays. It will take him time to learn an NFL playbook and an audible system. While Trubisky is good at eluding pass rushers in the pocket, his worst throws are those that must travel at least 5-10 yards while pressure is around him. These throws are the ones that are inaccurate and get intercepted. He can improvise when the pocket collapses, but he is not elite at it like say, Russel Wilson was in his college days. The other big concern is his limited number of starts. He did not start a game until this season, and quarterback prospects who tend to perform the best in the NFL have more game experience than one starting season in college.

Pro Comparison: Peak level Kirk Cousins
I'm talking about the Kirk Cousins we saw tear up the NFL in the second half of the season last year. That version of Kirk Cousins shows extreme accuracy on throws at all three distance levels, just like Trubisky. Trubisky is more mobile, but Cousins does have some running ability. While it took Cousins awhile to adjust to the pro game, he is one of the 10-15 best quarterbacks in the league right now at his peak. Trubisky has the potential to play at that high of a level all throughout his NFL career.

3 Teams that fit him: Arizona is a team that might think long and hard about Trubisky. Carson Palmer is not getting younger and seems to have regressed, but he can still be a veteran leader and effective placeholder until Trubisky is ready to play. Chicago stands out as another team that could use Trubisky, as they have enough total talent to warrant spending a pick on a QB (unlike the 49ers and Browns). They can also use Matt Barkley to play decent football and give Trubisky all of the time he needs to adjust. The final team I selected is Jacksonville. A new coaching change (which at this point almost seems imminent) may compel this team to ditch Blake Bortles and draft a quarterback with superior accuracy. They also have the talent on defense and other positions to warrant spending a top pick on a quarterback if they give up on Bortles.

Conclusion: Trubisky has all of the potential in the world to be a great NFL quarterback, but he does need time to develop and learn the playbook. Fortunately for QB needy teams, his accuracy is pinpoint and mechanics are solid, so while he will be a project, the skills are there now for him to succeed. He is at this point an early-round lock and possibly the first overall pick.

Monday, December 5, 2016

What do the Jets do at Quarterback?

Written by Christian Lysek

If you sported a dark green jersey on Monday Night Football against the Colts, I give you my condolences. The Jets were still (mathematically speaking) in the playoff running, and yet they put up a performance that would leave their grandmothers unimpressed. The story of the season of course for this dismal team has been continual issues at the quarterback position, and Monday's performance only brought more questions to the team. Here is a look at the Jets quarterback situation and where they could go with it in the next few months.


Ryan Fitzpatrick

Fitzmagic won No Shave November and not much else. The career journeyman seems to be doing everything in his power to prove last year was a mirage and nothing more. He now has 14 picks on the season to only 10 touchdowns per ESPN stats and info. His confidence has taken a serious hit and it shows on film. He was benched halfway through MNF and should stay there for the rest of the season since the Jets have no reason to start him.

Bryce Petty

He was once considered the enigma or wildcard on the Jets roster. "But what about Bryce Petty?" many hopeful fans asked. Well, Jets fans got an answer, but it is not the one they wanted. Petty threw three picks against a bad Colts secondary, and that was just in the second half of MNF. The Baylor offense seems inept at producing quarterback who can function in an NFL offense, but Petty's struggles go further than that. I know it's a simple offense, but the quarterback still has to be accurate and Petty is far from it. He makes Brock Osweiler look like Tom Brady when it comes to ball placement. He will (unfortunately) probably start from here on out though just so the Jets know he is not the answer.

Geno Smith

Ah, the poster child for overdrafting. He is on IR now, but with 28 TDs to 36 picks, we know what Geno Smith is, and it isn't a starting quarterback in the NFL.






Christian Hackenberg

If  you are curious as to why Hackenberg has yet to play in a real NFL game, see if you can scrounge up his preseason tape from the Jets preseason game against the Eagles. You may not find it, probably because the Jets burned all of the copies, but if you do you will find a quarterback that needs years of work to resemble what he once was at Penn State. He looks overwhelmed in an NFL uniform, and that won't change for awhile.

What Now?

Here are the options the Jets have for the next season since this one is lost:

  • Draft a QB this year, cut Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick: This would be a huge mistake, and not because they are cutting two current quarterbacks. The 2017 draft class QB wise is full of potential but weak overall and full of question marks, which is exactly what the Jets are now at the position. The Jets need to stay away from shiny project quarterbacks like Mitch Trubitsky and DeShone Kizer and take advantage of a draft class deep with running backs, EDGE rushers, and defensive back, which are coincidentally all positions the Jets desperately need help in.
  • Give Kirk Cousins a big contract, cut the two quarterbacks listed above: This scenario is unlikely, but then again, did many people see Brock Osweiler leaving a Broncos team that just won the Super Bowl? It is not like the Redskins treat their star QB well, and if they try and franchise or low-ball him again, don't be surprised if he makes some suspicious Kevin Durant-esq visits to other teams.
  • Resign Fitzpatrick or Geno for one more crack at it: They better not do this, the Eighth Amendment protects us from cruel and unusual punishment and it applies to Jets fans too.
  • Cut the aforementioned QBs, keep starting Petty (or Hackenberg)/pick up cheap QB veteran and then draft QB during 2018 draft: This is the best move for the franchise. If they start Hackenberg or Petty allows them to figure out if they have anybody on their roster who resembles a starting quarterback once and for all. If they sign a free agent for cheap like Matt Barkley or Mike Glennon, they field a competitive quarterback with leadership and some upside. Then the Jets get to take advantage of a 2018 draft class loaded with QBs. Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson, Jake Browning, and even Baker Mayfield will probably take the draft stage that night, and they are far more intriguing than the Trubisky/Watson/Kizer/Kaaya group. This could be a draft that saves the historic franchise once and for all.
Stats are from ESPN Stats and Info