Monday, July 31, 2017

2018 Draft Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Wide Receiver

Written by Christian Lysek


WR Top Ten and First Look:

1. Christian Kirk, Texas A&M
2. Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame
3. James Washington, Oklahoma State (on right)
4. Courtland Sutton, SMU
5. Deon Cain, Clemson
6. Calvin Ridley, Alabama
7. Dante Pettis, Washington
8. Antonio Callaway, Florida
9. Linell Bonner, Houston
10. Anthony Miller, Memphis

The wide receiver class of 2018 has plenty of talent, but lacks a unanimous number one prospect. I have seen seven different WR1s among the analysts I follow. Your's truly has Christian Kirk ranked as the top receiver in this class. He may only be 5'11'' and 200 lbs, but he is a class above every other receiver when it comes to explosiveness. He displays excellent route running and is a YAC monster. He has soft hands and has made some very tough catches in his career. Add on his value as a returner (23.1 yards per punt return, 5 TDs), and Kirk deserves the number one spot. Behind Kirk is the best name in college football Equanimeous St. Brown. He is a 6'4'' receiver who moves like he is 5'10''. He is an awesome athlete for his size, displaying a good vertical jump and impressive speed. He also was responsible for catching a number of wild DeShone Kizer throws in spectacular fashion for a total of 961 yards (16.6 per reception) and 9 touchdowns last season. Next on the list is James Washington, the favorite target of Mason Rudolph and one of the most consistent players in college football (two consecutive 1000 yard seasons with double digit touchdowns). According to Pro Football Focus, he also was third the nation in deep ball catches with 15 and led the country in deep ball receiving yards with 690*. Following Washington is the 6'4'' Courtland Sutton. Sutton is bigger and stronger than Equanimous St. Brown, but he doesn't quite have the speed to match. Still, Sutton is a big play threat who physically dominates opponents and his career is littered with highlight catches. Rounding out the top five is Deon Cain. After being suspended for the National Championship game in 2016 for violating team rules, Cain redeemed himself by catching 38 passes for 728 yards and 9 touchdowns. According to Pro Football Focus, 8 of those touchdown were on deep throws.

At number six stands Calvin Ridley, a former 5-star recruit and Alabama's best receiver for the past two seasons. While he has a thin frame and suffers from too many concentration drops, he is an explosive athlete and vertical threat. If Alabama wasn't content with playing smash mouth football, Ridley would put up huge numbers compared to what he already does (790 yards, 8 TDs in 2016). After Calvin Ridley comes Dante Pettis, who made a formidable receiving duo with John Ross in 2016. Pettis may not share Ross' extreme speed, but he is a good route runner and has excellent hands. Antonio Callaway would be much higher on this list if it weren't for his laundry list of off the field incidents.  The 5'11'' 197 pound receiver has the explosiveness to excel in the pros, but marijuana abuse and domestic violence accusations will keep him from cracking into the top tier. Linell Bonner is probably most remembered for his insane catch against Oklahoma last season (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z4ZleWWkaM). Bonner excelled in the slot and had the lowest drop rate in the country when it comes to wide receivers. Anthony Miller is 5'11'' and 191 pounds with fantastic route running ability and sure hands. He was one of the most productive receivers in the CFB last season with 95 catches, 1434 receiving yards, and 14 receiving touchdowns. Miller should put up huge numbers again with Riley Ferguson throwing to him.

Match-ups to Watch:

Clemson vs Florida State, November 11th
While Deon Cain was productive last year, he was Clemson's No.2 wide receiver behind Mike Williams. With the defenses attention on him, he will have to prove he can get open against Tavarus McFadden, one of the best corners in the CFB. This is also a great game to witness Auden Tate, Florida State's 6'5'' wide out who many are projecting to have a breakout season, against one of college football's best defenses.

Houston vs Temple, September 30th
In this matchup, Linell Bonner will be catching balls from a new starting quarterback (presumably Kyle Allen) against a Temple defense that allowed the third least passing yards in 2016. If Bonner has a big day, teams will take notice.

Washington vs Colorado, September 23rd
This will be Dante Pettis' first real test. Colorado pulled off a surprise 10-4 record in 2016, in large part due to their secondary. If Pettis can handle the role of a WR1, he will prove it against the buffaloes.

*According to Pro Football Focus, a deep ball is one that travels 20 or more yards through the air.
Follow 4 Down Scouting on Twitter @4DownScouting
All stats come from www.sports-refrence.com unless otherwise noted

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Sunday, July 30, 2017

2018 Draft Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Running Back

Written by Christian Lysek

RB Top Ten and First Look:

1. Saquon Barkley, Penn State
2. Derrius Guice, LSU (shown on the right)
3. Royce Freeman, Oregon
4. Nick Chubb, Georgia
5. LJ Scott, Michigan State
6. Kalen Ballage, Arizona State
7. Bo Scarbrough, Alabama
8. Mark Walton, Miami
9. Damien Harris, Alabama
10. Akrum Wadley, Iowa

For the second year in a row,  running backs represent one of the draft's strongest positions. This is going to be one of those years where starters can be found in every single round of the draft. In fact, out of all of the rankings I am working on, this was by far the most difficult. It is just too easy to make a case for several of these running backs to crack the top ten. Here are some of those players.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Weber (Ohio State), Ronald Jones II (USC), Ryan Nall (Oregon State), Kamryn Pettway (Auburn), Sony Michel (Georgia), Justin Jackson (Northwestern), Lavon Coleman (Washington), Myles Gaskin (Washington), Jarvion Franklin (Western Michigan)

Headlining this stacked group of running backs is Saquon Barkley out of Penn State. Barkley has been the man since he stepped on campus. He has been extremely productive as a runner (3135 yards, 30 TDs, 6.2 YPC over two seasons) and as a receiver (48 career receptions, 5 TDs). On film he is everything you want in a running back when incomes to size, explosiveness, speed, and vision. Expect another monster season from Barkley. Just behind Barkley is Derrius Guice, the successor to Leonard Fournette. Guice is an explosive back who excels after contact. He is a big play machine (7.8 YPC for his career) and is a first round lock at this time. Royce Freeman is coming off a down year due to nagging injuries, but I love his vision and blend of size and speed. Nick Chubb is a bowling ball of a back who struggled with explosiveness last season due to a knee injury in 2015. If he can regain his pre-injury form (8.1 YPC and 7 touchdown in 6 games in 2015), he will be a high draft pick. LJ Scott is big back who seems to thrive in the spotlight. He put up big numbers against Ohio State (236 total yards, 2 TDs) and Michigan (186 total yards, 1 TD) due to his vision and athleticism. I expect an even bigger year from the junior.

Slotting in at number six is Arizona State's Kalen Ballage, whom many draftniks are very fond of, including myself. At 6'3'' and 230 pounds, Ballage is a bruising back, but he can stay on the field for third downs due to his receiving ability. Bo Scarbrough was the third most elusive back in the country last year according to Pro Football Focus, and that is due to his insane combination of size (6'2'' 230 lbs) and speed (watch him vs Washington). Mark Walton aka "the grown ass man" had a breakout season last year where he ran for 1117 yards and had 15 total touchdowns. Explosive and incredibly tough to bring down, Walton is due for another big season at Miami. Damien Harris was actually the Crimson Tide's starting running back. While he isn't physically imposing like Bo Scarbrough at only 5'11'' and 215 lbs, he has great vision and toughness, which lead to several breakaway runs in 2016. Last on the list is Akrum Wadley from Iowa. He may not be incredibly fast, but he has amazing quickness and is dangerous in the open field. He is perfect for a pass-heavy offense.

Match-ups to Watch:

Arizona State vs USC, October 28th

It's Kalen Ballage vs Ronald Jones II. Ballage will go up against Cameron Smith, Porter Gustin, and the rest of the loaded USC front seven. Jones doesn't have it much easier, and the explosive back will have to go against some of the meanest players in the country in Koron Cump and D.J. Calhoun. This one is going to be a slugfest.

Western Michigan vs USC, September 2nd
This has less to due with Ronald Jones and more with Jarvion Franklin. If Franklin can put up a big game against one of the best front sevens in the country, his name will start getting moved up boards.

Oregon vs Oregon State, November 25th
By this point, we will know whether or not Royce Freeman will have regained his 2015 form, but a good performance will keep his name high on draft boards. Ryan Nall isn't being talked about enough right now, despite being Pro Football Focus' most elusive runner in 2016. Nall can put his name on the map with a big performance against Oregon.

Follow 4 Down Scouting on Twitter @4DownScouting
All stats come from www.sports-refrence.com unless otherwise noted

Saturday, July 29, 2017

2018 Draft Pre-Season Positional Rankings: Quarterback

Written by Christian Lysek

Hello everybody! After a few months hiatus, I have decided to continue scouting and writing. Only this year, I plan on running a much better operation. I left a lot of promises unfulfilled last year, and I hope to change that this year by providing more and better content under my new title, 4 Down Scouting. I have retooled my blog and made a new scouting twitter page, so feel free to follow my account and read my articles (@4DownScouting and 4downscouting.blogspot.com). Now, enjoy my first article covering the 2018 NFL Draft.
QB Top Ten and First Look:

1. Sam Darnold, USC (shown on the right)
2. Josh Rosen, UCLA
3. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
4. Luke Faulk, Washington State
5. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
6. Josh Allen, Wyoming
7. Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
8. Jake Browning, Washington
9. Deondre Francois, Florida State
10. Quinton Flowers, USF

The 2018 quarterback class is absolutely loaded. I think we could see as many as eight quarterbacks go in the first two rounds. Headlining this year's class is Sam Darnold, who has shown great accuracy, poise, and that "it" factor that is so rare among quarterbacks. His performance in the Rose Bowl was stellar, and scouts have high expectations for Darnold this fall. Not far behind Darnold is Josh Rosen, who had a down year in 2016 (59.3% completion, 10 TDs, 5 INTs). This was mostly due to a lack of talent around him and a shoulder injury. I expect a bounce back season from him in 2017. Mason Rudolph is a big quarterback whose film is full of NFL caliber throws. He may play in an air-raid system, but he will get a chance to show he is pro-ready at the Senior Bowl. Another prospect that could be in Mobile for the Senior Bowl is Luke Falk. While Falk lacks the arm strength many of his competitors have, his accuracy, impeccable touch, and production (two consecutive 38 TD seasons) should make him an early draft pick. Rounding out top five is reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson. Jackson is still incredibly raw as a passer, but he is a special athlete at the quarterback position and has tremendous upside along with college production.

The next five quarterbacks are headlined by Josh Allen. Allen has an arm best compared to a .50 caliber rifle and for a 6'5'' quarterback he is quite an impressive runner. Some have Allen as the number one quarterback in this class, but I am not as high on him as they are, mostly because he lacks the two traits I value most in quarterbacks: accuracy and decision making. Allen will need to drastically improve his 55.6% completion rate and his 15 interceptions in order to move up my board.  Following Allen is Jarrett Stidham, one of the most hyped transfers in recent memory. During his brief time at Baylor, Stidham completed 68.8% of his passes for 12 TDs and only two interceptions. If Stidham performs as well at Auburn as he did at Baylor, expect his name to rocket up draft boards. Jake Browning is the signal caller for one of the most talented offenses in the country. Browning is not a physical specimen, but if he can continue to display above-average accuracy and put up big  numbers, he should be an early-round selection come 2018. Deondre Francois is my breakout candidate among quarterbacks for this year. As a redshirt freshman Francois completed 58.8% of his passes for 20 touchdown and 7 interceptions while rushing for five touchdowns. If his offensive line can step up their game, Francois could experience a break
out season. Quinton Flowers is like Lamar Jackson-lite. He is a gifted athlete with production (76 touchdowns rushing and passing in the last two seasons) who needs to polish up his passing before he can be considered a top prospect.

Match-ups to Watch:

USC vs UCLA, November 18th
For many analysts, the top quarterback spot is being decided between Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold (and Josh Allen for some). This matchup should be a shootout of epic proportions, and it will likely reveal who is the best gunslinger in the land.

Florida State vs Alabama, September 2nd
We are going to find out what Deondre Francois is made of real quick. Francois faces the loaded Crimson Tide defense on opening weekend, but if he can put together a good performance, Francois should see his name fly up draft boards.

Wyoming vs Iowa, September 2nd
The last time Josh Allen went against Big Ten talent was in Nebraska where he threw five interceptions. He will have to have a better showing against the always stingy Iowa defense if he wants to be considered an elite prospect.

Follow 4 Down Scouting on Twitter @4DownScouting
All stats come from www.sports-refrence.com unless otherwise noted